The next quite probable thing

Oct 10, 11:52 pm in Business

What is the next technology innovation that will open up a new field of opportunities for businesses and start-ups to capitalise on? Well, who cares? It is not only a very speculative question but also extremely difficult to get right. The ones who have got it right usually have had an unflawed logic and more importantly a lot of luck or the clout to create at least part of that prosperous future. A more, if not as sexy, approach is probably to look at businesses that will provide services to those next big things. Yes, here come the tents, pans and pots to the gold rushers again.

John Battelle’s book The Search about Google and the search industry just gave me such an idea. In the book Batelle describes a scenario where our search history is analysed and merged with our TV subscriptions (such as TiVO) to allow advertisers to plug downloaded TV shows with highly relevant commercials. The key point that Battelle points out is that this will change the fundamental economics of TV advertisements. It will turn TV into a new sales channel rather than just a marketing channel. Increased conversion ratios could make the economics viable enough for even smaller firms to use TV commercials. In addition to the scenario described by Battelle several other channels that will be more and more based on interactive services and moving pictures and hence suitable for tailored TV like commercials. Video on Demand services replacing DVD/VHS rentals, multimedia mobile phone messages, online games etc. all of these services will in one way or another be viewed by audiences with a known customer profile or even well described individuals driving the validity of Batelle’s proposed new TV commercial economy. The number of conversions should go up.

Provided that the above development starts to happen there will shortly be an increased demand for production of small and specialised moving image commercials. Who’s going to make all of these? The budgets of today’s commercials are starting to build up to small movie budgets. Does today’s production houses have the flexibility, nimbleness and desire to produce small and cost effective commercials? What about a production house working with a skeleton crew, fast cost effective digital production techniques and re-useable media assets to provide professional adverts at a minimum of lead-time? I think this can be a very interesting and lucrative area over the next 10 years.

Comments made

  1. Adrian
    Oct 11, 07:02 am | #
    This will take a lot loner than you think, I have worked with TV companies and they are far slower moving than you’d think.
  2. Fredrik
    Oct 11, 09:30 am | #
    But would the TV companies have to play an active part in this? Granted that the per minute price stays the same and that content is vouched for. External players could theoretically buy chunks of advertisement time and manage it (i.e. sell it on in smaller chunks). In the TiVo model it does not have to be transmitted by the TV company either.
  3. Adrian
    Oct 12, 06:40 am | #
    But putting in a system to do real time point to point distribution of adverts over something designed for broadcast whilst technically possible is not feasible especially when you know how shambolic the TV companies and networks are. Plus they are making a killing selling advertising already, why change.
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